The Collapse of the 28-Clause Peace Initiative for Ukraine: How Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Stumble

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.