Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
Data scientist with over a decade of experience in analytics and visualization, passionate about making complex data accessible.