A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."